Russia
ended the last century under the fading shadow of the Soviet
Union and its relationship with the United States still under
a cloud.
For
President Vladimir Putin, 2002 was the year when the international
skies cleared. In spite of his relentless war in Chechnya, slow
progress toward economic reform and scant respect for human
rights or freedom of the press, Putin is now firmly in the American
camp as an ally against global terrorism.
Putin
and US President George W Bush have much in common in their
various 'wars' on terror. Both have serious economic problems
at home, nervous populations and little political opposition.
Both have experienced unprecedented personal popularity based
on crises of violence and terrorism. And both are more concerned
with power than democracy.
The
partnership between the two men is not an untroubled one: trade
disputes, spying allegations and quarrels over nuclear aid to
'rogue states' have made for difficult moments. But Bush's overarching
need for allies as he moves to war against Iraq has made the
path ahead much smoother for Putin and for Russia.
The
past year has seen a decisive shift, too, in Russia's own global
ambitions. It appears that Putin, once a dedicated KGB official,
has abandoned the quest for superpower status and accepted a
more viable role as a power broker - in both international affairs
and the international oil market.
But
it is Russia's internal conflict with Chechnya that has held
world attention more than any other issue in the region in the
past year.
The
capture of 800 theatre-goers by Chechen rebels in Moscow in
October, and the violent conclusion which left more than 120
dead when police attacked the building with an anaesthetic gas,
was the most dramatic event in Russia since the second Chechen
war broke out in August 1999.
Russia
has been trying to pull the small, rebellious mountain republic
back into its fold since the crumbling of the Soviet Union.
But two brutal wars have left tens of thousands dead, levelled
towns and villages, and reduced the Chechen people to desperation
and dire poverty. Thousands of Russian soldiers, too, have lost
their lives and dozens continue to die in ambushes each month.
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| Oil
lies at the heart of the Chechen conflict.
Beneath this well in Chechnya runs the Russian
underground pipeline carrying crude from the
Caspian Sea. |
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In
August, months before the hostage-taking, a shocked Russian
public learned of the death of 116 soldiers when an overloaded
military helicopter crashed into a minefield in Chechnya. The
disaster reminded Russians that in spite of Putin's uncompromising
rhetoric the war had not been won - and their sons were paying
the price. A gradual groundswell of opposition began to build
and Putin appeared to yield to pressure for a political rather
than military settlement.
But
he still maintained that Chechnya's elected president and commander
of its guerrilla army, Aslan Maskhadov, was incapable of negotiating
for peace and was plotting with 'foreign forces' like Osama
bin Laden's al-Qaeda network. In the absence of a negotiating
partner efforts to find a political solution were abandoned.
Those efforts died altogether with the Moscow hostage crisis.
Meanwhile,
the protests of human-rights organizations have gone increasingly
unheeded. Putin has equated his struggle with the Chechens with
Bush's fight against al-Qaeda, stressing links with global terrorism
and claiming that Russia is a target of Islamic extremism. As
a result Washington has gone quiet on the subject of Chechnya.
As
the year moved on the US focus shifted from Afghanistan to Iraq
and with it the international agenda. Russia, a long-term Iraq
ally with billions of dollars in debts still outstanding from
Baghdad, took a much softer line on Saddam Hussein than his
Washington counterpart.
In
August, Russia upset its new-found Western allies by announcing
plans to sign an economic co-operation deal with Iraq worth
up to $60 billion. It would include contracts for Russia to
help modernize Soviet-built infrastructure, of which Iraq's
oil fields are a major part.
Alarm
spread in the back rooms of Western oil companies when Iraqi
Foreign Minister Naji Nabri said that Russian companies would
have 'full priority in Iraqi oil trading on the world market'.
Not
surprisingly, Moscow rejected an invasion of Iraq and opposed
an American-sponsored draft UN resolution that threatened the
use of force if Baghdad didn't co-operate fully with disarmament
efforts within a short timetable.
But
a compromise was found when Washington persuaded Russia that
its economic interests would not be overlooked. In the crucial
UN vote Moscow not only dropped its objections but came out
in favour of a new resolution that implied, though did not directly
threaten, force. The volte-face came at a price for Moscow;
Baghdad abruptly cancelled a multi-billion-dollar oil-exploration
contract with three Russian companies.
The
next hurdle for Putin was NATO's expansion eastward - taking
in seven new members including Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania
and bringing the once anti-communist military alliance to Russia's
door. The Baltic countries, especially, have been wary of Moscow.
Now they view the NATO membership as a line drawn under the
Soviet era.

For
years Russian officials had railed against the expansion, expressing
outrage at the 'aggressive' move. But after a goodwill visit
by Bush to Putin's home town of St Petersburg the Russian leader
responded mildly: 'We hope to have a positive development in
our relations with NATO countries.'
Putin
had already taken the historic step of agreeing to launch a
joint NATO-Russia council. And the two leaders papered over
their final differences with speeches of mutual concern on terrorism.
Almost
simultaneously a package of military reforms was announced,
promising the creation of a new, more professional Russian army
that would be geared to dealing with terrorist threats. The
emphasis on terrorism, in fact, overshadowed one of the most
important disarmament events of the decade, a Strategic Arms
Limitation agreement for both Russia and the US to cut their
warheads from 6,000 to 2,000 - taking both countries one more
step away from the Cold War years.
With
such expressions of East-West solidarity - and the prospect
of a new war looming - Russia's nuclear aid deal with Iran and
a visit from 'axis of evil' President Kim Jong-il of North Korea
raised little comment from Washington.
Russia
proved itself a firm economic as well as strategic ally for
the West in 2002. Moscow's decision to go it alone on the international
oil market, unpegging its production quotas, was a slap in the
face for the Arab-dominated OPEC cartel and a welcome sign to
an oil-hungry Western market. Now near the top of the list of
oil producers, Russia is increasingly dependent on its 'black
gold' as a revenue-producer.
Strong
sales have helped to bring Russia's economy back from the brink
of disaster after a 1998 crash. But the success is only slowly
trickling down to ordinary Russians.
Nevertheless,
2002 was a year that saw Russia handed the cleanest bill of
financial health in its decade of transition from communism.
It was officially declared a 'market economy' by the European
Union and the US Department of Commerce. The decision is a boon
to Russian steel companies, although it will ultimately mean
more pressure on the Government to cut tariffs protecting its
own market.
That
will be a difficult step even for a government like Putin's
which has virtually no opposition in parliament and no significant
opposing voices in the media. During his three years in power
he has quietly encouraged a cult of personality - with adulatory
stories in the press, a thriving souvenir business selling portraits
and memorabilia and more recently a pop song in which the female
singer longs for a 'strong and sober' man just like the President.
More
than ever, Putin is capitalizing on his reputation as the man
who gave Russia back its pride. Whether pride goes before a
fall, only the turbulent, testing year ahead will tell.