The Facts -- New Internationalist

new internationalist 112 June 1982

AGEING

The Facts

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The FACTS

The age
of ageing

The stage is set for a unique population explosion. As fewer babies are born and people live longer we are beginning to witness the worldwide emergence of a new generation: the over-sixties. In the rich world the old are already one-fifth of the population. Soon this pattern will be repeated in the developing world.

Faster ageing
Total world population is expected to treble between 1950 and 2025. But the UN predicts a five-fold increase in the population of over-60s.

World Population increase
	1950	1975	2000	2025
Total population	2520	4066	6119	8195
% increase	100%	161%	243%	325%
Population over 60	214	346	590	1122
% increase	100%	162%	276%	524%

Increase around the world (figures in millions)
		1950	1975	2000	2025
World	over 60	214	346	590	1122
	Percentage	8.5	8.5	9.6	13.7
Africa	over 60	12	20	43	102
	Percentage	5.5	4.9	5.0	6.6
Latin America	over 60	9	20	41	93
	Percentage	5.4	6.3	7.3	10.8
North America	over 60	20	34	45	76
	Percentage	12.1	14.6	15.0	22.3
East Asia	over 60	51	90	169	335
	Percentage	7.5	8.2	11.5	20.0
South Asia	over 60	54	62	133	308
	Percentage	7.6	5.0	6.4	10.9
Europe	over 60	51	82	102	129
	Percentage	12.9	17.4	19.9	24.7
Oceania	over 60	1	2	4	6
	Percentage	11.3	11.1	12.5	17.8
USSR	over 60	16	34	54	71
	Percentage	9.0	13.4	17.5	20.1

Fewer babies
World birth rate is slowing down. In 1950 there were over 36 babies born for every 1,000 people. By 2025 the UN estimates there will be only half that number.

For sale!

Longer lives
Meanwhile improvements in health and nutrition mean that people are living longer. Average life expectancy at birth was only 47 in 1960. By 2025 life expectancy is expected to be 70 years.

Longer lives

Going on alone
In the industrialised world, women in their 60s outnumber men by 10 to 7. By the time they reach their 80s women outnumber men by 2 to 1.

The extra years
Women's natural lifespan is up to 9 years longer than men's. But in developing countries the combined rigors of childbearing, hard work and poor nutrition narrow the gap. As living standards improve the gap will widen.

The extra years

Families of the future
The parents of today are the grandparents of tomorrow. As younger generations decide to have fewer children and older generations live longer, so the structure of the typical global family is changing. By 2025 there will be relatively fewer young people to support a growing proportion of over 60s.

Changes in family structure.

Age ratios
	1975			2025
age in years	0-14	15-59	60+	0-14	15-59	60+
WORLD	37%	55%	9%	25%	61%	14%
Industrialised Countries	25%	60%	15%	20%	57%	23%
Developing Countries	41%	53%	6%	26%	62%	12%

Two steps poorer
• 123 countries now offer a pension to retired workers. But most developing countries only provide for those in formal employment. Up to 80% get no regular wage, are not entitled to a pension, and cannot afford to retire.

• In industrialised countries most people’s income drops sharply when they retire.

• The International Labour Office (ILO) recommends that state pensions should be between 65% and 80% of the working wage.

• Few countries provide even the ILO minimum: