Where Will They Fall?

AFRICA
Aid for and interest in Africa dwindling. But one-party state systems threatened as popular demand for political plurality grows.

ETHIOPIA
Mengistu regime in serious trouble. Soviet bloc has withdrawn support, army is demoralized and rebel groups are winning the war.

USSR
Soviet economic reconstruction will take 50 years, experts say, and will cost billions of dollars. Will capitalism provide?

CHINA
Heavy government repression. But ingredients for European-style revolution there - including nascnet ethnic unrest.

INDO-CHINA
Pol Pot's dreaded Khmer Rouge at last ditched by US - but already poised to take over the country. US opens belated dialogue with Vietnam.

AFGHANISTAN
Western support for Mujahedin rebels is waning. Victory against Soviet-backed government now unlikely.

CENTRAL AMERICA
US invasion of Panama launches more aggressive policy towards Central America. Soviet approval counts for nothing.

LATIN AMERICA
More industrialized countries like Brazil may find new markets in the East. But protectionism in the united Europe could be a threat.

SOUTHERN AFRICA
Cuts in Soviet aid and support lead to more poverty and hunger in Mozambique and Angola.

INDIA / PAKISTAN
Border tensions running high, not helped by arms race. Conditions ripe for war.

JAPAN
New investment opportunities in the changed world but more hostility from the US. Japan's rearmament lobby may grow as a result.

PACIFIC
Fearing regional instability Aotearoa / New Zealand, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore are increasing their defence budgets.