new
internationalist 112
June
1982
| AGEINGThe
Facts |
|
|
The
age
of ageing
The
stage is set for a unique population explosion.
As fewer babies are born and people live longer
we are beginning to witness the worldwide emergence
of a new generation: the over-sixties. In the rich
world the old are already one-fifth of the population.
Soon this pattern will be repeated in the developing
world.
|
Faster
ageing
Total world population is expected to treble between 1950 and 2025. But
the UN predicts a five-fold increase in the population of over-60s.
|
|
|
World
Population increase
|
|
|
1950
|
1975
|
2000
|
2025
|
|
Total
population
|
2520
|
4066
|
6119
|
8195
|
|
%
increase
|
100%
|
161%
|
243%
|
325%
|
|
Population
over 60
|
214
|
346
|
590
|
1122
|
|
%
increase
|
100%
|
162%
|
276%
|
524%
|
|
|
Increase
around the world (figures
in millions)
|
|
|
|
1950
|
1975
|
2000
|
2025
|
|
World
|
over
60
|
214
|
346
|
590
|
1122
|
| |
Percentage
|
8.5
|
8.5
|
9.6
|
13.7
|
|
Africa
|
over
60
|
12
|
20
|
43
|
102
|
| |
Percentage
|
5.5
|
4.9
|
5.0
|
6.6
|
|
Latin
America
|
over
60
|
9
|
20
|
41
|
93
|
| |
Percentage
|
5.4
|
6.3
|
7.3
|
10.8
|
|
North
America
|
over
60
|
20
|
34
|
45
|
76
|
| |
Percentage
|
12.1
|
14.6
|
15.0
|
22.3
|
|
East
Asia
|
over
60
|
51
|
90
|
169
|
335
|
| |
Percentage
|
7.5
|
8.2
|
11.5
|
20.0
|
|
South
Asia
|
over
60
|
54
|
62
|
133
|
308
|
| |
Percentage
|
7.6
|
5.0
|
6.4
|
10.9
|
|
Europe
|
over
60
|
51
|
82
|
102
|
129
|
| |
Percentage
|
12.9
|
17.4
|
19.9
|
24.7
|
|
Oceania
|
over
60
|
1
|
2
|
4
|
6
|
| |
Percentage
|
11.3
|
11.1
|
12.5
|
17.8
|
|
USSR
|
over
60
|
16
|
34
|
54
|
71
|
| |
Percentage
|
9.0
|
13.4
|
17.5
|
20.1
|
|
|
Fewer
babies
World
birth rate is slowing down. In 1950 there were over 36 babies
born for every 1,000 people. By 2025 the UN estimates there will
be only half that number.
|
Longer
lives
Meanwhile
improvements in health and nutrition mean that people are living
longer. Average life expectancy at birth was
only 47 in 1960. By 2025 life expectancy is expected to be 70
years.
Going on alone
In the industrialised world, women in their 60s outnumber men
by 10 to 7. By the time they reach their 80s women outnumber
men by 2 to 1.
|
The
extra years
Women's natural lifespan is up to 9 years longer than men's. But in developing
countries the combined rigors of childbearing, hard work and poor nutrition narrow
the gap. As living standards improve the gap will widen.
|
Families
of the future
The
parents of today are the grandparents of tomorrow. As younger
generations decide to have fewer children and older generations
live longer, so the structure of the typical global family
is changing. By 2025 there will be relatively fewer young
people to support a growing proportion of over 60s. |
 |
|
Age
ratios |
|
|
1975
|
|
|
2025
|
|
|
|
age
in years
|
0-14
|
15-59
|
60+
|
0-14
|
15-59
|
60+
|
|
WORLD
|
37%
|
55%
|
9%
|
25%
|
61%
|
14%
|
Industrialised
Countries |
25%
|
60%
|
15%
|
20%
|
57%
|
23%
|
Developing
Countries |
41%
|
53%
|
6%
|
26%
|
62%
|
12%
|
|
|
Two
steps poorer
• 123
countries now offer a pension to retired workers. But most developing
countries only provide for those in formal employment.
Up to 80% get no regular wage, are not entitled to a pension,
and cannot afford to retire.
•
In industrialised countries most people’s income drops
sharply when they retire.
• The International Labour Office (ILO) recommends that state pensions
should be between 65% and 80% of the working wage.
• Few
countries provide even the ILO minimum:
Brazil – 50% of
minimum wage
United States – between 35% and 60%
Federal Republic of Germany – 60%
Soviet Union – between 50% and 75%
• One in two Americans regret having retired |
|
