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60 years on ...
The exact date when world population is expected to stabilize (i.e. when the number of babies born equals the number of people dying) is revised every year as population growth rates change. At present the predicted date of stabilization is 2045.3
Where will all the people be?
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1985(m)
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2045(m)
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% of total
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ASIA (inc. CHINA)
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2,552
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5,213
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51
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AFRICA (Sub-Sahara)
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442
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2,144
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21
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LATIN-AMERICA
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383
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879
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9
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EUROPE (inc. USSR)
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745
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858
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8
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MIDDLE EAST (and NORTH AFRICA)
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315
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706
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7
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NORTH AMERICA
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264
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306
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3
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OCEANIA
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19
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24
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0.2
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WORLD
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4,720
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10,130
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The top ten in 2045
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Population in millions
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Ranking in 1985
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Population in 1985 (m)
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1. CHINA
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1,683
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1
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1,040
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2. INDIA
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1,678
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2
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765
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3. NIGERIA
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529
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9
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100
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4. PAKISTAN
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395
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10
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96
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5. USSR
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384
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3
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277
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6. INDONESIA
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363
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5
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162
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7. BANGLADESH
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305
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8
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101
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8. BRAZIL
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292
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6
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136
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9. US
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277
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4
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239
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10. MEXICO
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197
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11
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79
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The world of five billion
This year world population tipped the scales at five billion.12 It is growing at a rate of around a billion every 12 years. Every minute it grows by 150; every day by 220,000; every year by 80 million. But this stupendous growth rate is starting to slow down and world population is expected to stabilize at around ten billion less than 60 years from now.3 This prediction is an extrapolation from current declines in birth rates, which are, in turn, dependent on economic development and availability of contraception.
Sources:
1 United Nations Fund for Population Activities, 1983 Report.
2 Bradshaw et al, 1977, cited in Simon, J., The Ultimate Resource, Princetown University Press, 1981.
3 World Bank Development Report, World Bank, 1987.
4 GNP = Gross National Product.
5 Average completed family size a curent fertility rates.
6 People magazine, various issues, International Planned Parenthood Federtion.
7 Seager, J., and Olson, A., Women in the World, Pan, 1986.
8 Hartmann, B., Reproductive Rights and Wrongs, Harper and Row, 1987.
9 World Fertility Survey, 1985.
10 The State of the World's Children, UNICEF, 1984.
11 Recent Levels and Trends of Contraception Use as Assessed in 1983, United Nations, 1984.
12 Teitze, C., Induced Abortion: A World Review, I 1983.
13 1 billion = 1,000 million.
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